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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。, v# O2 U6 r6 x) D' [. t& G4 N
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GM Overview
1 T. o3 }( i8 r• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs! A! R' A5 [0 Q* l# g7 @& _* F" }
• Objectives* l( @6 F7 O- T x7 e$ ]2 r
– What do we “WANT” to do?/ i3 q/ A7 ^. c3 {( S; N
• External Analysis
" R+ ?+ \0 b0 p/ ]7 I9 t– What do we “NEED” to do?
6 M7 s, _3 E G: K& R( h2 {5 M5 s– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade$ P: M1 E8 l# [& I4 _
• opportunities & threats6 Q/ R8 V- H- z8 i
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs
4 k( ^3 d, t- b6 b; r• Internal Analysis
- H- u7 C1 A! K' W# T8 M6 p8 p– What “CAN” we do?
* S# [, @: W6 Q* P. A( ]– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR. k! {7 f5 U8 ~+ z0 S. s0 H
• abilities, strengths & weaknesses
0 ~7 L1 f$ e. b4 Z$ c: C– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES
9 d: _3 C" b4 m. `
7 y' U5 R* Z3 o3 S• Alternative Evaluation
5 X* [3 A% L# P1 A8 g– What are the options?6 M3 m1 H& S3 l1 G$ q
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options
/ D0 h+ n5 V% e9 T, i6 J– How does this option “FIT”?8 _% l6 W5 O0 t' N. Y
– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
5 k! X( W1 p7 e1 ]# g3 F8 g, o( z– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”) ; X9 m! u8 w* l. ^, \
# q* ]% }) ~5 ~8 u• Decision6 J8 a3 ~5 [% [( Z- j7 u- `
– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).0 e% N8 d% h: z' y3 x9 V
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING
% ~% g) n& v8 [/ K! O4 b5 W" j. b• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?
) N7 E% g5 Q; T( I: M9 v" T• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?- L" B5 k) P: ~$ N5 }: X3 V, y2 E! s
• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?# p/ }" V* q; N$ _
• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)
0 t& m& u1 z: _1 H6 j- |; @• Why NOT the other options?2 K: e- O) n' S; P
• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes6 p& @4 W$ H/ y& O N7 a; [* \" E% Q
need to be made?
4 t- i- s5 V: W0 O% s) J+ @! |- H. R0 T' P- a2 k' @9 e, Z
• Action Plan$ }' N0 x! O( c: U1 d' F
• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;
~9 y* _" E, Y7 i– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your
5 G# W0 g. Z. K% E8 G( u) gdecision
0 ~8 Q( v; [, F6 w ]– details about timing1 v; k3 @' h# i; F8 O6 v* A
– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’/ K7 i- V# Q# Q/ v" k9 x& C4 w' O
– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)6 ]3 ?5 |7 `( y# G8 V
– make sure to consider both the short term and long term* z0 l x7 ^0 l5 U* v& n( N- v, m" ?
! [* a0 g8 w9 L
Firm Valuation
4 p# f! v- y- f& ^• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
7 f) x7 [! b7 m1 V3 J$ Y. Q• 3 methods of valuing a firm;0 V) Y( A" D+ I( p9 y _
– Net Book Value" O6 }' H+ P I$ r0 K
– Economic Appraisal0 t) p" i1 {3 `/ D+ x
– Capitalization of Earnings
; S& E$ \. D4 t8 j i• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
% v- Y6 W5 _' F( `6 B9 F* Xcompany is worth.. S! P& [4 ^- d& `$ n
• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???1 {2 w! M0 y U6 U: _! T |
* E; [7 ~1 N, ?9 j1 a' q
Net Book Value (NBV)" e4 M4 o( F0 u3 K0 M
– Total Assets - Total Liabilities
+ E! A( [; Q2 o% W& Q4 K8 n( C6 F• a.k.a.. the equity* j! O X$ A$ I$ L2 Z
– Does not account for the present market value of the assets6 c' s2 W# _* D+ _
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet
" i4 J2 I( N' R* S. C7 u" i0 l; ^% V– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business- O- L" z. g* @1 `
+ o5 X" g$ V/ o Economic Appraisal (EA)
3 e9 V% ]9 T5 k. O' H- f– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
, x# i1 i3 c2 |, S% J) G: f– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities/ `; Q# }, W& D u1 w
– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets
8 h4 b8 `- i8 b$ z6 l0 |! G. W+ X A# J" J0 |, e6 h
Capitalization of Earnings (CE): s8 v6 V$ V I* a( r9 |
– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S3 h; _; \) Q; Z A
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.3 e& Q$ u8 ^8 K6 t% M$ c
– NPAT * P/E ratio = value9 S5 u1 E9 x% {1 c ]! P% m
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)1 k2 C5 g' x2 N9 T) x, ?: v
• Assuming changes (projected statement)
$ w. R! S" P' n1 V• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)
' T5 i; m- W+ t' K– Select a reasonable P/E multiple; n/ ?" r& s6 b. M: {* S2 }- z0 s. w
– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)
. F* I& v3 ]3 ?: n5 y6 V, N' Y; z. F! W
• P/E Multiple$ a/ \( y3 T4 ]* L8 T, p6 J
– Rules of thumb;( L' v) _* \$ l: N3 t) M* k4 Y* Y
• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples
2 ^. z, e4 }# o `5 }: s. dfrom 5 to 15.
! c6 Q- F' `6 b3 ?8 Y' i$ m4 T( G4 X• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.5 t, Q: }6 L' Z; v. _. h
• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”
9 M0 e* T+ |7 {– growth increases a multiple0 s3 i* h7 d0 o- y" T% k
– risk decreases a multiple- t( \- k1 ~! ?: S/ ]
% F! ? F" O. h0 _! DTheir Associated Ratios& @( s" s1 s0 k
• Profitability;7 Y4 v) q2 y0 M# V1 G9 z
– Business goal - to make $$6 s- t! [& m4 | |. I
– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales0 v" g: x2 B" S5 ~
• Stability;
+ Q r# \- T4 }- K% H7 M4 ]– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)$ A. \" o% ?$ U: v- O
– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts. C5 Z( ^+ g8 J2 t- N
! p9 U& ]1 X9 y' ?
5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios
* P; B" G& U9 A • Liquidity;
9 |$ B% s$ F% {8 \" I* b– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations
, G( f# K# y( N# H5 a8 \6 {1 W' _0 S– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm
* `* N1 i" @: Q% [8 M# Qobligations)
- V* v( e) F2 l" a% }- f1 N7 y• Efficiency;
$ A7 b2 y. e: {/ u– Business goal - to efficiently use assets t# \8 F$ y6 [7 C/ w
– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments
( @6 k6 ?$ t6 j$ |9 ?9 o2 }
/ ~$ X5 T* ~0 ?0 J0 Q& J8 y* n* T• Growth;1 N6 v. t5 |, P* R. r. I' ~0 H
– Business goal - to increase in size( a3 [# e! B- j9 d1 R, |: g0 k3 T- D
– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth( w, @! w( x- S# k5 |
' B1 U* y6 d' r# o& fInterpreting the Ratios
# P9 f$ P" O) x# _( @, E$ {( ]• Profitability;. V/ V/ \; _, F& l5 T6 \) q9 q
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)
. F8 @' X4 e! k7 V PI/S items * 100 = %
8 N/ v' B4 T- ]) A Sales
& n, L! ~3 S( P7 t1 E• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales* j4 u9 K+ T: n3 d$ {. M
– Return on Investment/Equity
0 a) Y; w" i; P. Z+ RProfit ATB4D = % 3 L1 W8 O" v8 o- w. z$ P( |
Average Equity
' v( _, J+ R7 c1 G' q[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]
4 f3 `9 t( E8 Z7 a% M& _• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners
/ l! w3 u7 A9 G( J0 r# ]& x
+ y: I5 u9 r5 T5 Q( f• Stability;- A8 M# X A7 {; E! @* h7 N
– Net Worth: Total Assets- _/ z" O% t+ C. j1 K# j
Total Equity = % 5 Q& ^% Y/ v5 d/ U4 f! m9 N( E
Total Assets+ Q# e4 \) W) R: U- a8 I4 B% G" p
• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money3 p8 _# b" ~/ k5 V( L) q% T
– Debt to Assets% @# l& I# |! c: Y6 N
Total Debt = % ) [7 {/ e6 |5 J3 l2 x4 \
Total Assets, M+ K$ f- a! H
• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt
7 o* D- k0 L& ^+ Q4 |( }– Interest Coverage# a5 Z. u. ~+ w+ q( ]' X) @
EBIT = # times
1 h1 H& s9 v( x: b. m, HInterest Expense1 S* @! y5 R- p
• tells us how many times we can pay interest
. Q" e% E% r& b+ K7 n
$ O; i5 \; Y, N1 m% b. c• Liquidity;
. g8 K# }$ X1 U# |) Q; B$ [5 x– Current Ratio% _) o& k3 b8 x, E+ [
Current Assets = X:1
' a- f( Y& K8 \! p" u( p# H! z2 QCurrent Liabilities
+ k6 Q1 U+ E" H• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts4 c ^) A' w+ o7 D2 w( u* ]2 W
RULE OF THUMB: 2:19 Y/ w: n' t5 f6 v
– Acid Test6 L, x! T: A8 `
Cash + M/S + A/R = X:1; Z' V% \9 F4 i5 s U5 a6 x5 ?( e/ l( e0 \
Current Liabilities. X: N" X" X: ]3 {
• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us s) o/ N p7 ]& _" w8 @! w& c
RULE OF THUMB: 1:11 X4 I4 E. m; L- p
! w- R7 x% }4 T% q( F2 H( ^
– Working Capital
$ z. ~9 n/ E( {C.A - C.L = $X
, @/ c3 `$ r! x0 P6 i, r1 l• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid. I# j# e1 E; q& D' O% b8 G0 M
5 w1 K. c6 n' } z; F7 X# v% V4 T
Efficiency;
( j# m: e- O C3 a* N% b– Age of Receivables
5 ?* I( h( c- o3 M! w6 \Accounts Receivabl = # Days
" o1 j6 ?+ T% @5 a5 T3 K' j+ O (Sales / 365)# ^' F3 q+ Z* z% ]/ O/ _. @
• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$
2 y( N+ K; [0 l2 q/ z3 p4 ]& M C9 i
: G6 n+ y5 v2 ?& ^2 S- Q9 Z– Age Of Payables
+ N9 [8 h8 O3 t7 F& h& l9 PAccounts Payable = # Days
6 H0 T% g1 k* E1 o$ f1 w(Purchases* / 365)# v, u$ z0 N( ~. ^9 m2 R
• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
) Z9 ?6 b# U4 u+ V& Z) ` F4 J/ l$ q4 a$ }5 t7 t2 W0 x
– Age of Inventory
0 W8 t9 R( i3 h* s# F% q ^4 e Inventory = # Days+ b, ]" C( J; l8 N
(COGS / 365)
; a6 ^3 L4 D) k, L• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse/ S: O! U1 r, V: h
! V: N/ X/ M2 c/ s T% R3 p
• Growth;
! A5 [: `$ x( d+ b9 n+ ]( ^– Sales0 K& M7 q0 J5 I& ^
– Net Income
* O/ f& s5 v0 v' k– Total Assets
3 y) s1 l* Z( K" _5 _) S/ L– Equity
& a% L& A* |6 T; p' WYr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %- V& n6 }' y- e8 m; a0 H
Yr. 1
# {- [/ a) U0 m# P# W+ `9 [. w• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)4 D! ^# t% {, f4 \, Z
/ p5 ~% D, y- {& \0 W& `
Understanding Ratios, G2 c! @9 y7 K' f
• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”9 v" A2 C) G. A% n- N
• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio8 ~( t9 n* G5 n: Q G3 F
• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”
8 P( A5 T% ^( ~( @, i8 O– Which number caused the change?
1 j) W3 {6 ^" Y2 ?( Q- w- T7 `– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.
; Y% W2 }) x0 I– Will these trends continue?
9 B5 y2 a3 U! h" \! ?" f1 u– How does the company compare to the industry?
. d. I, F5 }/ f4 y7 K- \/ v6 w) d8 v7 s x8 `% b0 m: E
3 N5 r& u8 c) Y& V6 a4 sClassifying Costs5 ^: z. {1 a' ]: U* o' }' O
• Variable Costs
& m, |8 r$ ?6 x– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)
2 m: c$ \9 _. \% U+ [1 ]4 I• Fixed Costs
) ]9 J4 e/ w2 h( N! k& G– cost that does not vary with volume |
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